Veepin' at Nutwood

I like black and white
(Dreaming of black and white)
You like black and white
Run run away

See chameleon
(Lying there in the sun)
All things to everyone
Run run away

~~ "Run Runaway" by Slade

I'll get back to The Corona soon enough, but I thought I'd write about something more fun today: the 2020 presidential race! 

Hello? Hello? [taps microphone] Is this thing on? 

I need something to take my mind off of the looming apoxalypse (see what I did there?) so I'm going to indulge in a little speculation. This is always a fun exercise for me. While I don't recall if I went on record in 2008 predicting that Obama would pick Biden as his running mate, I believe I thought he was on the shortlist. However, in 2016, I did go on record to predict that Tim Kaine would be Hillary's pick, and I was correct. 

It looks likely that Joe Biden will be our nominee this year, so speculation has already begun about who his running mate will be. For a while, I had hopes that it might be our Mayor Pete: young, charismatic, some foreign policy chops, brilliant. In the latest Democratic debate, Biden put the kibosh on that, saying that he would choose a woman to be his running mate. (I suspect that Pete will get a Cabinet position in a Biden presidency, perhaps VA Secretary or even Secretary of State. He'd be great at either position.)

Okay! [clapping hands] So now we've narrowed it down to a woman. I've seen various pieces speculating on who it might be. Here is the shortlist (in alphabetical order):

Stacey Abrams (candidate for Georgia Governor)
Val Demings (Florida Congresswoman)
Michelle Lujan Grisham (Governor of New Mexico)
Kamala Harris (California Senator)
Maggie Hassan (New Hampshire Senator)
Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota Senator)
Michelle Obama (no title needed)
Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire Senator)
Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts Senator)
Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)
Sally Yates (former US Deputy Attorney General, appointed by President Obama)

Each of these women is capable and qualified to serve as a VP, but of course, there are many things to consider when narrowing down the field, and first and foremost should be whether or not the VP will be able to assume the presidency if necessary. But other considerations include their current position and whether their absence would be felt in the Senate or elsewhere; if they are currently in office, does their state have a Democratic Governor; name recognition; the nebulous "it factor" (i.e., charisma); ability to get along with and support the policies of the nominee; previous experience in government, at whatever level; a solid grasp of policies and politics in general. There are probably many other considerations, but those are the ones that immediately come to mind. 

Here are my quick thoughts on each of these potential candidates. And although this might be a little controversial, I am going to include their race, because I think that is part of the consideration here. 

Stacey Abrams: brilliant, charismatic, African American, ran a great campaign for Georgia Governor (and was robbed of the win by her nefarious opponent), gives a great speech.

Val Demings: also brilliant, former Chief of Police of Orlando, African American, outstanding in the impeachment hearings. 

Michelle Lujan Grisham: of Hispanic heritage, comes from a long line of politicians in New Mexico, but little name recognition.

Kamala Harris: outstanding in various Senate hearings, African American and Jamaican heritage, former AG of California, but that also includes lots of baggage about her policies as AG, ran for President and did well for a while, but it looks like there was some campaign mismanagement, sitting Senator. 

Maggie Hassan: low name recognition, sitting Senator, white. 

Amy Klobuchar: sitting Senator, tough debater, white, ran a pretty good campaign for President, a good record of getting things done in the Senate, weird stuff about how she treats her staffers. 

Michelle Obama: Seriously? Not going to happen. As much as I love her, I don't think she has any desire to be VP, let alone President. I think it's absurd that people are actually floating her name. Granted, a Biden-Obama ticket would be virtually unbeatable but...nope. Not happening. 

Jeanne Shaheen: sitting Senator, low name recognition, white. 

Elizabeth Warren: sitting Senator, brilliant policy chops, white, ran a great campaign for President, a fantastic debater who isn't afraid to go for the jugular, bad response to the ridiculous "Pocahontas" moniker bestowed upon her by Indiv-1. 

Gretchen Whitmer: great speaker, delivered a great Dem response to the most recent State of the Union address, white, seems to really have her shit together as Governor of my state's northern neighbor. 

Sally Yates: brilliant lawyer, not afraid to speak up, white, takes little crap from anyone. 

I can narrow this list down pretty quickly because I think Biden will choose a woman of color. He might not need to since his support among African Americans has been fairly broad and sustained. However, I really think that he will want to send a big "thank you" to that coalition for basically getting him the nomination. Especially African American women, who are the heart of the Democratic party. 

I think there is also a concern about choosing a sitting Senator because our goal is to not just keep the House, but also win the Presidency and the Senate. When someone chooses a sitting Senator or a sitting House member, they need to make sure that the state has a Democratic Governor or is a reliably blue state. 

Based on all these things, I had narrowed it down to two: Stacey Abrams and Kamala Harris. I think Abrams would be amazing and a great running mate, but I feel that Biden will choose Harris. I tipped to that choice today when I read this article from Jonathan Bernstein of Bloomberg. He advises that the best, safest bet is to choose a running mate who has won a statewide office and has been vetted by running a national campaign. That's Harris. Yeah, she has her issues, especially with her record as California AG, but I think she would be a formidable pick. Can you imagine her debating Mike Pence? I sure can. She is also a Senator from a reliably blue state with a Democratic Governor, and while I don't know what California's policy is, a special election or gubernatorial appointee, either way, her replacement will be a Democrat. 

(I also hope that he nominates Sally Yates as US AG.)

My prediction is that Biden's running mate will be Senator Kamala Harris. If I'm wrong, I'll eat a bug. (A tiny one, like a gnat.)

My VP prediction

A while back, I mentioned on Facebook that I think Hillary Clinton will pick Tim Kaine as her running mate. Today I’m going on record with that pick. I may be proved wrong and will be the first to say so. But I did predict that Biden would be Obama’s pick way back when, so I’ve got that going for me!

Here is my reasoning, along with comparisons to the other two VP front-runners, Elizabeth Warren and Julian Castro. (I’ll leave the Republican prognostications to others. I have no idea what Trump will do. Does anyone?)

One of Hillary’s big arguments against Trump is that she’s got the experience and he doesn’t. (Man, a truer statement was never made!) While Warren would be a good pick to get some of the Sanders supporters on Hillary’s side, there is a portion of them who are already vilifying Warren for endorsing Clinton and campaigning for her. Get a grip, people. I’m just not sure it would do her that much good with the diehard Sanders supporters. Despite Warren’s excellent work on the CFPB and in the Senate, she really doesn’t have that much experience in foreign policy. That is Clinton’s strong suit against Trump. Same goes for Castro. He has some executive experience as Mayor of San Antonio and he’s been a part of President Obama’s cabinet, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience at that level and it’s hard to say, “He’s ready to be President on Day One.”

Kaine, however, has been Mayor of Richmond; Governor of Virginia; he is a current Senator for Virginia; he serves on several committees, including Armed Services and Foreign Relations; he served as DNC chair for two years. If the main criterion for the pick is experience, Kaine gets it.

Did I mention Virginia? Major swing state. Massachusetts is reliably blue so Warren doesn’t help there. Castro’s main ties are to Texas, which is going to stay red. Kaine wins in this aspect.

Massachusetts has a Republican Governor, so he would appoint a Republican to take Warren’s Senate seat. The Democrats really really REALLY want to retake the Senate. Losing a seat by picking Warren would be counterproductive in that goal. (Harry Reid seems to have found a loophole to limit that, but it’s still risky.) Virginia’s Governor, Terry McAuliffe, is a Democrat, and limited to one consecutive term. He can appoint himself to the Senate seat, keeping Kaine’s seat blue.

Hillary has a big advantage over Trump among women. Adding a woman to the ticket will not make much of a difference in that regard. I have heard some reservations about an all-female ticket. I certainly do not share those reservations, but I can see why it might make some people feel kind of oogy. Two powerful women...I know! So scary! ::eye roll:: But yeah, I recognize that it might be too big of a leap for some (unenlightened) folks. I’m also not sure how much chemistry there is between Clinton and Warren. I think Warren will be an enthusiastic and effective surrogate, but the relationship between running mates does matter and can make a difference in the perception of the ticket.

Hillary also has a big advantage over Trump among Hispanics. Because you know...THE WALL. So adding Castro to the ticket isn’t going to provide much of a boost there.

Is Kaine the energetic, dynamic pick? Nope. He admitted on “Meet the Press” this morning that he is “boring.” But if you’ve been watching Hillary Clinton over the years, you know that she is a cautious politician and by no means a firebrand. I think she will go for the cautious pick. That Kaine can deliver a major swing state is a big deal.  

There have been a few other mentions, like Cory Booker. I would love to see him on the ticket! But again, Hillary has no problem with African-Americans, so he doesn’t give her a boost. Sherrod Brown would also be great, but Ohio also has a Republican Governor who would appoint a Republican to his seat. Al Franken? I would love that, too, and Minnesota has a Democratic Governor. But I just don’t quite see her choosing him, although he will be another great surrogate. Unleash your inner, sarcastic comedian a little bit, Senator Franken! Sanders? Not gonna happen.

Kaine is the safest, most logical pick for Hillary. My money is on Tim Kaine.