You got to know when to hold ‘em

Article first published as You Got to Know When to Hold 'Em on Blogcritics.

Obama’s P-P-P-Poker Face

A long time ago (way back during the 2008 presidential campaign...it seems like a lifetime), I wrote a blog entry about an article I’d read in Time. The article was about the nominees’ gambling styles. There was some commentary that it was an irrelevant and foolish fluff piece, but I disagreed at the time, and I still do.

John McCain apparently loves craps. One of the riskiest games you can play in the casino, the only strategy involved in craps is how and where to place your bets, and the odds of what you will roll; the roll of the die is completely random, and whether you win or lose is completely dependent on your rolls and that of others. It is a game of high risk and high reward...or high losses. You can win big, but with one roll you can also lose everything you have on the table. It’s a definite rush if you’re winning, but the next thing you know, you’re wiped out and walking away.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, is a poker player. Poker is a more deliberative game, in which a smart player can go far. As with all gambling endeavors, there is risk involved, but a savvy player will know not only the odds of getting certain hands, they will bet accordingly and wisely. A big part of poker strategy also involves bluffing and doing your best to not give away your hand, whether good or bad. Apparently, he is pretty good at it.

I was reminded of this article and my subsequent thoughts on it by the events of the past week and our mission to kill Bin Laden. Many articles referred to the “gamble” the President took, and one journalist ran into him at the correspondent’s dinner and said there was “no tell.” Every poker player looks for the other players’ tells, and tries to not have one or at least hide it as best they can.

The President took a calculated risk with this mission. I’ve read that the certainty that Bin Laden was in that particular compound varied from 60-90%. The risks involved were great here, more along the lines of craps rather than poker. A failed mission would have been disastrous for the military members involved, for the President, and for his foreign policy credibility. A successful one would...well, we saw what it did, didn’t we? The congratulations were grudging and in some cases non-existent, but overall, no one could dispute that the death of Osama Bin Laden was a good thing for our country, for our world, and yes, for the President.

Still, the risks were calculable, and based on years of intelligence-gathering, the President did indeed go all-in. He bet not only on the accuracy of the information gathered by various intelligence agencies, he bet on the talents, training, and sheer gutsiness of the military team involved. He also may have gambled on his second term as President.

He won big. He won in a raking-in-the-pot sort of way. There will always be those who disagree with his policies, but it’s hard to not recognize and admit that in this case, he was a cool customer who took a big chance and walked away a winner. We’re a long way away from the 2012 election, but this particular gamble may pay off in spades. Or as Congressman Anthony Weiner might say, “Aces!”

Trump: The non-serious non-candidate

*Article first published as Trump: The Non-Serious Non-candidate on Blogcritics (this is my first post there!)

There has been much buzz lately concerning whether or not Donald Trump will run for President. Trump, a master of self-promotion, has blatantly courted the Tea Party by aligning himself with the little group of crazies that just won’t go away, the Birthers.

Trump’s shameless pandering to this group of idiots seems to be paying off. Not only does a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll show Trump tied with Mike Huckabee at 17% for second place behind Mitt Romney, the ratings for his NBC show Celebrity Apprentice are up. (I’ll admit to Apprentice being one of my guilty pleasures. It’s a fun show.) He’s a smart businessman and a good promoter.

However, when he uses the Birther “controversy,” a non-issue that has been repeatedly debunked, to garner attention and generate publicity, it is impossible to take him seriously. He spouts the typical nonsense about how a certificate of live birth is not the equivalent of a birth certificate; he states that Obama’s grandmother in Kenya says she was a witness to the birth, although it has been shown that that was due to a translation error; he maintains that Obama’s mother didn’t have the money to put birth announcements in not one but two Hawaiian papers, although most newspapers publish such announcements at no charge. It’s a silly argument, and Trump makes himself look silly for climbing onto the Birther bandwagon.

Trump doesn’t just make himself look foolish. He diminishes the stature of the office of the presidency. While he certainly has the right to run for president if he so chooses, his pursuit of the Birthers is ludicrous and laughable. Former entertainers can certainly take being elected seriously, and approach the job with the appropriate gravitas. Ronald Reagan, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jesse Ventura, Sonny Bono, even Fred Grandy (Gopher from The Love Boat), for pete’s sake, made the transition from entertainment to politics. While they all occasionally had non-serious moments, they embraced nothing so ridiculous as the Birther nonsense. (One could make the argument that trickle-down economics was every bit as ridiculous, but that is a topic for another day.) I suspect that the GOP is not thrilled with this development; when they are struggling to field a serious candidate who has a chance against Obama, this clown is talking Birther blather. When even Glenn Beck says you’ve taken it too far, you might need to realize that you’ve got a credibility problem.

If Trump’s goal was to garner attention and generate publicity, he has succeeded. If his goal is really to be taken seriously as a possible presidential candidate, he is failing miserably, except with a small and deluded minority of the population. Astonishingly, a significant portion of Republicans (51%) don’t believe Obama was born in America. That portion of the population isn’t enough to win an election; Independent voters will be key, and they want no part of the Birther silliness. Nor should any thinking American.

Was that a tantrum?

Oh dear, it seems as though I struck a nerve with yesterday’s entry. After lobbing a few softball insults my way (ones that weren’t very firmly grounded in reality), someone picked up their ball and went home. Apparently my life is worthless, insignificant, and fake. I can think of a few people who might disagree with such a statement. You know, I’m really to the point where I don’t care what certain people think of me. If people are stupid enough to be brainwashed by hearing a distorted view of reality and don’t have the balls to ask questions and find out for themselves, that’s not someone I care to have around. I don’t feel one bit diminished, or less fulfilled as a person. In fact, I feel richer every day, and I don’t mean that in a monetary way at all (although I’m sure it will be portrayed that way).

People find fulfillment in different ways; what matters greatly to some is not that big of a deal to others. This seems to go back to the feelings of some that I am less of a person or that I am selfish because I have not had children. What is this, the 1950’s, in which it was expected that a woman get married and have children? I’ve done the marriage part—twice—but the children part never worked out for various reasons, and it was a conscious, logical, and well thought out choice. I find it amusing that someone would think this was an insult. Yeah, I’ve got a uterus and ovaries, but I chose not to use them! I’ve been laughing about it all day. It really is almost incomprehensible to me that there are people that still think in such terms. My uterus is none of your concern. Really.

I also find it kind of sad that someone would be in such denial that they would take the easy path and assume that everything told to them is the truth. I suppose it’s easier to avoid such confrontation, but I see it as simply buying into the delusion and not being curious enough to try to find more of the truth. [shrugs] I can’t control that, but it does tell me a lot about the intellectual level there, and capacity for the pursuit of knowledge, as well as comprehension. Ah well.

On a happier note, I got an invitation from something called BlogCritics about writing political articles for them, and I think I’m going to do it. Has anyone here ever participated in that? It looks to be affiliated with Technorati. Things are really going to start getting exciting with the 2012 campaign soon, so there will be plenty to write about. Then there is that whole looming shutdown thing going on. I think I might like to write a weekly (or thereabouts) thing for them and see how that goes. I keep the rights to whatever I write, but I have to post it there first. Then I can post it here. I think it would be kind of a fun endeavor. They encourage you to let your own voice come out in your writings. I can do that, but I’ll be careful about the swears. I swear promise!

Tonight it’s a lecture at Notre Dame between Sam Harris and William Lane Craig, titled The God Debate II. (The first God Debate was between Christopher Hitchens and Dinesh D’Souza. I missed that one.) I’m really looking forward to this. I’m currently reading Harris’s The Moral Landscape, and it’s excellent. I’m planning on taking notes, so I hope to have a writeup for you about it. Harris’s hypothesis in the book is that morality has scientific properties that can be studied and explored. Apparently Craig will argue that morality must come from religion. You can guess which side I’ll be cheering for! I’ll write more about the debate soon, but it seems obvious to me that religion has fostered and even encouraged many very immoral actions. Perhaps Craig will argue that it’s the Judeo-Christian religion that begets morality. I have two words for him, one of them hyphenated: child-raping priests.

Anyway, should be a good time. More to come!